Box Office Predictions of 2023 -
The 2023 Box Office is in full motion, and here, we will predict the potential successes, analyze the anomalies, and examine the box office flops.
Barbenheimer is upon us, and in the next few weeks, we will analyze the performances of both 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer' respectively.
Box Office Records of 2023 (The Boxies):
Highest Grossing Picture (Domestic): The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Grossing Picture (Worldwide): The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Grossing International Picture: Full River Red
Highest Grossing Animated Picture: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Grossing Independent Picture: Sound of Freedom
Best Worldwide Opening Weekend: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film: (January):M3GAN
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (February): Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (March): John Wick: Chapter 4
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (April): The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (May): Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (June): Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (July): Barbie
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (August): Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (September): The Nun II
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (October): Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (November): The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (December): Wonka
Highest Grossing Original Movie: Elemental
Best Legs (3,000+ Theater Debut): A Man Called Otto
Best 2nd Weekend Hold (2,000+ Theaters): Sound of Freedom
Most Weekends at Number 1: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Most Weekends in the Top 5: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Most Weekends in the Top 10: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Greatest Budget Multiplier ($10m+ Budget): M3GAN
Longest Release: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Widest Opening: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Highest Grossing Studio (In-Year Release): Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Best Rotten Tomatoes Score: Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret
Best IMDB Score: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Most Wins:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (9)
A Man Called Otto (2)
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (2)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (1)
Elemental (1)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (1)
M3GAN (1)
Full River Red (1)
Asteroid City (1)
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (1)
Sound of Freedom (1)
Barbenheimer is upon us, and in the next few weeks, we will analyze the performances of both 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer' respectively.
Box Office Records of 2023 (The Boxies):
Highest Grossing Picture (Domestic): The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Grossing Picture (Worldwide): The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Grossing International Picture: Full River Red
Highest Grossing Animated Picture: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Grossing Independent Picture: Sound of Freedom
Best Worldwide Opening Weekend: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film: (January):M3GAN
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (February): Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (March): John Wick: Chapter 4
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (April): The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (May): Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (June): Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (July): Barbie
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (August): Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (September): The Nun II
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (October): Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (November): The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Highest Worldwide Grossing Film (December): Wonka
Highest Grossing Original Movie: Elemental
Best Legs (3,000+ Theater Debut): A Man Called Otto
Best 2nd Weekend Hold (2,000+ Theaters): Sound of Freedom
Most Weekends at Number 1: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Most Weekends in the Top 5: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Most Weekends in the Top 10: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Greatest Budget Multiplier ($10m+ Budget): M3GAN
Longest Release: The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Widest Opening: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Highest Grossing Studio (In-Year Release): Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Best Rotten Tomatoes Score: Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret
Best IMDB Score: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Most Wins:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (9)
A Man Called Otto (2)
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (2)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (1)
Elemental (1)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (1)
M3GAN (1)
Full River Red (1)
Asteroid City (1)
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (1)
Sound of Freedom (1)
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- DirectorGerard JohnstoneStarsAllison WilliamsViolet McGrawRonny ChiengA robotics engineer at a toy company builds a life-like doll that begins to take on a life of its own.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $50,000,000
Foreign: $25,000,000
Worldwide: $75,000,000
RT: 63%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $30,429,860
Domestic: $95,043,350
Foreign: $81,768,182
Worldwide: $176,811,532
RT: 93%
Note: While could be a soft hit, the evil doll subgenre has never been that successful, so it's safe to expect this film might not do that well.
Edit: Thanks to "M3GAN" going viral on social media, and with solid promotion, young audiences showed up, and allowed this film to easily break even, and will likely do well on digital as well. - DirectorJean-François RichetStarsGerard ButlerMike ColterTony GoldwynA pilot finds himself caught in a war zone after he's forced to land his commercial aircraft during a terrible storm.Opening Weekend: $5,000,000
Domestic: $10,000,000
Foreign: $7,500,000
Worldwide: $17,500,000
RT: 20%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $10,265,326
Domestic: $32,111,181
Foreign: $17,946,750
Worldwide: $50,057,931
RT: 77%
Note: Generic action films are known to have very little reach among audiences, and with it opening in January, it will most likely be DOA at the box office.
Edit: Possibly thanks to the good reception, "Plane" was able to have a decent opening, but it's still a mediocre result for the action flick. - DirectorMarc ForsterStarsTom HanksMariana TreviñoRachel KellerOtto is a grump who's given up on life following the loss of his wife and wants to end it all. When a young family moves in nearby, he meets his match in quick-witted Marisol, leading to a friendship that will turn his world around.Opening Weekend (Wide): $6,500,000
Domestic: $20,000,000
Foreign: 10,000,000
Worldwide: $30,000,000
RT: 71%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend (Wide): $12,828,785
Domestic: $64,267,657
Foreign: $44,731,861
Worldwide: $108,999,518
RT: 69%
Note: With Tom Hanks in this film, and if it has solid word of mouth, I could see this film doing okay at the box office.
Edit: Thanks to the Midwest and Southern audiences who will still show up for Tom Hanks' movies, older audiences helped to propel this film to a solid gross worldwide. However, the high budget stands in the way of this film being a true success. - DirectorNicholas D. JohnsonWill MerrickStarsTim GriffinAva Zaria LeeNia LongAfter her mother goes missing, a young woman tries to find her from home, using tools available to her online.Opening Weekend: $8,000,000
Domestic: $30,000,000
Foreign: $20,000,000
Worldwide: $50,000,000
RT: 41%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $9,154,695
Domestic: $32,502,025
Foreign: $32,502,025
Worldwide: $45,100,756
RT: 87%
Note: The first film "Searching" was a sleeper hit. However, it has been so long since the original film released, that I doubt that this film will have an impact.
Edit: The good reception and minimal competition to "Missing" helped it to have a decent performance, increasing from "Searching" domestically. - DirectorM. Night ShyamalanStarsDave BautistaJonathan GroffBen AldridgeWhile vacationing, a girl and her parents are taken hostage by armed strangers who demand that the family make a choice to avert the apocalypse.Opening Weekend: $25,000,000
Domestic: $65,000,000
Foreign: $70,000,000
Worldwide: $135,000,000
RT: 55%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $14,127,170
Domestic: $35,397,980
Foreign: $19,053,487
Worldwide: $54,451,467
RT: 67%
Note: M. Night Shyamalan does have some box office appeal, and with Dave Bautista and Jonathan Groff attached to the film, it has a good chance of being a soft hit.
Edit: The opening weekend for "Knock at the Cabin" is weaker than anticipated and is the lowest opening of M. Night Shyamalan's career, likely due to poor marketing. And while this has weak audience scores, and has weak legs, the budget remains low, so it will likely turn a profit, but not a massive one. - DirectorKyle MarvinStarsLily TomlinJane FondaRita MorenoA group of friends made it their life-long mission to go to the Super Bowl and meet NFL superstar Tom Brady.Opening Weekend: $10,000,000
Domestic: $35,000,000
Foreign: $20,000,000
Worldwide: $55,000,000
RT: 48%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $12,701,640
Domestic: $39,330,588
Foreign: $385,086
Worldwide: $39,715,674
RT: 62%
Note: While a very niche film, the movie could find its audience, leading to decent word-of-mouth among its demographic, and even football fans. While it won't do that well, it could find its audience in theaters.
Edit: The opening for "80 for Brady" proves that the film was able to find its audience, which are older moviegoers, specifically older women and propelled it to a solid box office. However, the $28m budget will be a major struggle for the film to overcome. - DirectorSteven SoderberghStarsChanning TatumSalma HayekAyub Khan-DinMike takes to the stage again, following a business deal that went bust, leaving him broke and taking bartender gigs in Florida. Mike heads to London with a wealthy socialite who lures him with an offer he can't refuse.Opening Weekend: $12,500,000
Domestic: $35,000,000
Foreign: $40,000,000
Worldwide: $75,000,000
RT: 73%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $8,305,317
Domestic: $26,005,156
Foreign: $30,286,821
Worldwide: $56,291,977
RT: 49%
Note: While 'Last Dance' could have decent legs at the box office, due to Warner Bros. Discovery's limited marketing budget, it could fall victim to that factor.
Edit: While not a disastrous result for the "Magic Mike" threequel, Warner Bros. Discovery's thrifty theatrical release for this film caused it from having a better opening, and likely a better performance. If only Warner Bros. Discovery debuted this film in 3,000 theaters instead of its 2nd weekend, we would've likely seen a better performance. And with the $60m+ on budget and marketing, it's unlikely it'll break even. Let's hope WBD is able to make their smaller films become successes in the near future. - DirectorPeyton ReedStarsPaul RuddEvangeline LillyMichael DouglasScott Lang and Hope Van Dyne are dragged into the Quantum Realm, along with Hope's parents and Scott's daughter Cassie. Together they must find a way to escape, but what secrets is Hope's mother hiding? And who is the mysterious Kang?Opening Weekend: $110,000,000
Domestic: $260,000,000
Foreign: $430,000,000
Worldwide: $690,000,000
RT: 79%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $106,109,650 ($120,394,617 4-Day)
Domestic: $212,957,983
Foreign: $261,566,796 (China: $39,424,993)
Worldwide: $474,524,779
RT: 47%
Note: The "Ant-Man" franchise has been doing okay so far, and with the success of other Marvel films in 2022, this could be a smaller, but a decent hit for the franchise.
Edit: While the opening for the film is just okay, the problem is the terrible legs "Quantumania" is having. It has some of the worst weekend drops in the MCU, domestically and overseas. These drops are also amplified by a low opening. And now, worldwide, it has to struggle to surpass the 1st "Ant-Man" film, and if this film can't improve on previous "Ant-Man" entries, despite a bigger budget, scale, marketing, and villain, then what are we doing here Marvel? Now, this film will barely break even, and will either barely lose money, or earn little. - DirectorElizabeth BanksStarsKeri RussellAlden EhrenreichO'Shea Jackson Jr.An oddball group of cops, criminals, tourists and teens converge on a Georgia forest where a huge black bear goes on a murderous rampage after unintentionally ingesting cocaine.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $40,000,000
Foreign: $40,000,000
Worldwide: $80,000,000
RT: 63%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $23,260,790
Domestic: $64,378,330
Foreign: $21,627,048
Worldwide: $86,005,378
RT: 68%
Note: Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, have had success in the animation industry, but with this film being more niche that their other projects, it won't be as successful as their other films. Let's see if Elizabeth Banks can deliver.
Edit: Even if the concept is so outrageous, Universal cleverly marketed this movie through social media platforms and the good reception from critics has propelled "Cocaine Bear" to an overperforming opening weekend and U.S. gross. While it may have faltered overseas, Universal should still see a decent return on investment, a win for the company, and even Elizabeth Banks as a director. - DirectorJon ErwinBrent McCorkleStarsJoel CourtneyJonathan RoumieKimberly Williams-PaisleyThe true story of a national spiritual awakening in the early 1970s and its origins within a community of teenage hippies in Southern California.Opening Weekend: $8,000,000
Domestic: $18,000,000
Foreign: $12,000,000
Worldwide: $30,00,000
RT: 68%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $15,882,067
Domestic: $52,095,353
Foreign: $227,722
Worldwide: $52,323,075
RT: 60%
Note: Religious films don't do well at the box office, and "Jesus Revolution" seems to follow that same pattern.
Edit: Due to the lack of Christian films in this market, and solid exposure from Lionsgate, "Jesus Revolution" has able to have a solid opening weekend, and could have legs due to great receptions from Christians, and provide a much-needed win for Lionsgate - DirectorMichael B. JordanStarsMichael B. JordanTessa ThompsonJonathan MajorsAdonis has been thriving in both his career and family life, but when a childhood friend and former boxing prodigy resurfaces, the face-off is more than just a fight.Opening Weekend: $40,000,000
Domestic: $130,000,000
Foreign: $115,000,000
Worldwide: $245,000,000
RT: 88%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $58,370,007
Domestic: $156,248,615
Foreign: $118,200,000
Worldwide: $274,448,615
RT: 89%
Note: Creed is an established brand, and with all of the March competition, it could still hold its own throughout the month, as long as it has good word-of-mouth.
Edit: The "Rocky" and "Creed" brand is as strong as ever with audiences, proven by "Creed III", which massively overperformed compared to expectations, delivering the biggest debut for a film in the "Rocky" universe, and for sports films in general, and is also good for everyone involved, especially Michael B. Jordan and Jonathan Majors (Although the current allegations indicate that the goodwill he had is somewhat gone at the moment). It's also a well needed win for MGM, and the solid audience reception from all ages indicates good legs throughout a crowded March. And if this proves anything, it's that Amazon can successfully program a box office hit. - DirectorMatt Bettinelli-OlpinTyler GillettStarsCourteney CoxMelissa BarreraJenna OrtegaIn the next installment, the survivors of the Ghostface killings leave Woodsboro behind and start a fresh chapter in New York City.Opening Weekend: $40,000,000
Domestic: $105,000,000
Foreign: $80,000,000
Worldwide: $185,000,000
RT: 63%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $44,447,270
Domestic: $108,161,389
Foreign: $60,672,743
Worldwide: $168,834,132
RT: 77%
Note: With the modest hit that was "Scream"(2022), "Scream 6" looks to do okay as well, with a star in Jenna Ortega, and a clever marketing campaign.
Edit: "Scream VI" proves that the "Scream" franchise is as strong as ever, besting the biggest debut of the franchise by over $10m, and delivers the 3rd best opening for an R-Rated Post-Pandemic film. This can be attributed to the strong marketing campaign, bigger than any other "Scream" movie. And thanks to social media, and the rising popularity of Jenna Ortega, "Scream VI" continued a very solid March. - DirectorScott BeckBryan WoodsStarsAdam DriverAriana GreenblattChloe ColemanAn astronaut crash lands on a mysterious planet only to discover he's not alone.Opening Weekend: $20,000,000
Domestic: $65,000,000
Foreign: $65,000,000
Worldwide: $130,000,000
RT: 65%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $12,328,361
Domestic: $32,062,904
Foreign: $24,178,123
Worldwide: $56,241,027
RT: 35%
Note: Like "Distant", original Sci-fi films don't do so well, and this film might do okay with some recognizable names like "Adam Driver", but it won't be enough to be considered a success.
(And the $65m is somewhat of a pun).
Edit: While not horrible for "65", Universal seems to still have a strong hold on the dinosaurs. "65" delivers an underwhelming performance for the sci-fi/horror flick, with bad critical and audience reception. And now, the film is unlikely to break even with the $45m budget, adding to the pile of underperforming Sony films. - DirectorBobby FarrellyStarsWoody HarrelsonKaitlin OlsonMatt CookA former minor-league basketball coach is ordered by the court to manage a team of players with intellectual disabilities. He soon realizes that despite his doubts, together, this team can go further than they ever imagined.Opening Weekend: $7,500,000
Domestic: $17,500,000
Foreign: $10,000,000
Worldwide: $27,500,000
RT: 76%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $5,148,740
Domestic: $16,271,910
Foreign: $2,562,054
Worldwide: $18,833,964
RT: 57%
Note: With all of the competition in March, I don't see this film holding its own throughout the month and will likely flop if the budget isn't low.
Edit: With all of the competition from other, bigger March blockbusters in the market, "Champions" was unable to stand out, and delivered a weak performance for the Focus Feature/Universal film. Thankfully, audience reception is strong, and is having decent holds to make up for the lackluster performance. - DirectorDavid F. SandbergStarsZachary LeviAsher AngelJack Dylan GrazerThe film continues the story of teenage Billy Batson who, upon reciting the magic word "SHAZAM!", is transformed into his adult superhero alter ego, Shazam.Opening Weekend: $45,000,000
Domestic: $105,000,000
Foreign: $160,000,000
Worldwide: $265,000,000
RT: 85%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $30,111,158
Domestic: $57,638,006
Foreign: $74,567,092
Worldwide: $132,205,098
RT: 49%
Note: The positive reception of the first film could help gain word of mouth, but March is a very crowded month, and it might struggle because of that. And because of the lack of buzz around "Fury of the Gods", it will suffer, leading to a weak box office.
Edit: It seems as if the DCEU couldn't be rebooted soon enough. "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" delivered the 3rd worst debut for a DCEU film, falling behind "Birds of Prey", and is barely ahead of "The Suicide Squad". One factor is the poor marketing. This film didn't have an interesting hook the same way the 1st "Shazam!" did. It also released in a crowded market, with "Scream VI" and "Creed III". And DCEU & "Shazam!" don't have the same amount of prestige compared to those other franchises. And with mediocre audience and critical reception, this looks to be another DCEU bomb. Let's hope the rest can deliver, although I doubt it. - DirectorChad StahelskiStarsKeanu ReevesLaurence FishburneGeorge GeorgiouJohn Wick uncovers a path to defeating The High Table. But before he can earn his freedom, Wick must face off against a new enemy with powerful alliances across the globe and forces that turn old friends into foes.Opening Weekend: $70,000,000
Domestic: $205,000,000
Foreign: $175,000,000
Worldwide: $380,000,000
RT: 91%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $73,817,950
Domestic: $187,131,806
Foreign: $245,246,968
Worldwide: $432,378,774
RT: 94%
Note: Since the John Wick franchise is still going strong for Lionsgate, "John Wick: Chapter 4" looks like to keep the momentum going and be a success. It won't be a huge increase from "Parabellum", but an increase non-the-less.
Edit: This March, the good just keeps coming (expect Shazam II), especially with the debut of "John Wick: Chapter 4". The Chad Stahelski action sequel easily delivers what looks to be the highest grossing R-Rated film post-pandemic, and the biggest Lionsgate film since "The Hunger Games" movies. This can all be contributed for the strong brand Lionsgate, Chad Stahelski, and Keanu Reeves built throughout the years in "John Wick" all the way back in 2014 with the word-of-mouth hit "John Wick", and with Chapter 2 & 3 back in 2017 and 2019 respectively. And with great early reviews that led up to the film's release, a solid ad campaign, and an A CinemaScore, this will easily be a huge hit for everyone involved. Let's see how the JWCU (John Wick Cinematic Universe) will fare after Chapter Four - DirectorZach BraffStarsFlorence PughMorgan FreemanCeleste O'ConnorFollows Allison, whose life falls apart following her involvement in a fatal accident.Opening Weekend (Wide): $10,000,000
Domestic: $30,000,000
Foreign: $20,000,000
Worldwide: $50,000,000
RT: 71%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend (Wide):*
Domestic: $2,210,465
Foreign: $868,676
Worldwide: $3,079,141
RT: 56%
Note: This film does have some recognizable stars, such as Florence Pugh and Morgan Freeman, and with a fascinating premise, I think that could increase traction, if not slightly, for this film.
*Never Went Wide - DirectorJohn Francis DaleyJonathan GoldsteinStarsChris PineMichelle RodriguezRegé-Jean PageA charming thief and a band of unlikely adventurers embark on an epic quest to retrieve a lost relic, but things go dangerously awry when they run afoul of the wrong people.Opening Weekend: $45,000,000
Domestic: $145,000,000
Foreign: $185,00,000
Worldwide: $330,000,000
RT: 69%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $37,205,784
Domestic: $93,277,026
Foreign: $114,677,790
Worldwide: $207,954,816
RT: 91%
Note: With a good amount of interest in this film from the media and audiences, I can see this film doing pretty okay at the box office, but not well enough to start a cinematic universe off this film, since that's what Paramount wants to do. It's a true wildcard, but I think it'll just do fine.
Edit: While the result could potentially be worse, this is still a weak result for "Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves". With an over 60% drop in its 2nd weekend, and its lack of growth worldwide, this film seems it will likely flop, despite the immensely positive reception from critics and audiences across the board. Even if Paramount lowered the insane $150m budget, it still seems unlikely to turn any profit in the theatrical window, likely killing Paramount's chances at a new franchise. Maybe with a better release date, it could've broken out. But with the competition from "Super Mario Bros." and "John Wick 4", it seems to be the third wheel of the two releases, and it can't seem to escape that title. - DirectorAaron HorvathMichael JelenicPierre LeducStarsChris PrattAnya Taylor-JoyCharlie DayA plumber named Mario travels through an underground labyrinth with his brother Luigi, trying to save a captured princess.Opening Weekend: $90,000,000 ($120,000,000 5-Day)
Domestic: $425,000,000
Foreign: $625,000,000
Worldwide: $1,050,000,000
RT: 65%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $146,361,865 ($204,630,730 5-Day)
Domestic: $574,934,330
Foreign: $786,033,951
Worldwide: $1,360,968,281
RT: 59%
Note: Illumination is a very successful film studio, with "Rise of Gru" coming short of a billion. And with the fact that Mario is an iconic piece of IP, especially for Nintendo, plus the addition of no blockbuster releases for April, this film will most likely be a big hit for Universal and Nintendo
Sunday Edit: "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" keeps on breaking records. It had broken numerous of records, including biggest 5-day weekend, and among the world of animated movies, as it has the possibility to surpass 'Incredibles 2' to be the highest-grossing animated film of all time. Looking beyond that, it's currently the highest grossing film of 2023, surpassing "Full River Red", and has well surpassed $1b worldwide, with a great debut and gross in Japan and Korea respectively. Who's to thank? The Mario IP carries multi-generational appeal, from the youngest child to the oldest person. Illumination also likes to market their big films like crazy ('Rise of Gru had a $140m marketing cost). And when they both combine, they were able to please audiences with an A CinemaScore, and deliver a record setting performance. - DirectorBen AffleckStarsMatt DamonJason BatemanBen AffleckFollows the history of sports marketing executive Sonny Vaccaro, and how he led Nike in its pursuit of the greatest athlete in the history of basketball, Michael Jordan.Opening Weekend: $12,500,000 (17,500,000 5-Day)
Domestic: $60,000,000
Foreign: $40,000,000
Worldwide: $100,000,000
RT (100+ Reviews): 90%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $14,456,279 ($20,204,133 5-Day)
Domestic: $52,460,106
Foreign: $37,051,938
Worldwide: $89,512,044
RT (100+ Reviews): 92%
Note: Michael Jordon and his shoe brand is an iconic part of pop-culture, and with the strong initial conversation and buzz around the Ben Affleck feature, it could perform well over April.
Sunday Edit: Despite the utter beast that is "Super Mario Bros.", "Air" was still able to attract a solid debut for an adult oriented movie, with over a $20m debut domestic, and a solid worldwide performance. And with an A CinemaScore, it's holding quite well throughout April. While it won't break even if a $90m budget, I doubt Amazon is too concerned. - DirectorChris McKayStarsNicholas HoultNicolas CageAwkwafinaRenfield, Dracula's tortured henchman, is forced to capture prey for his master and do his every bidding. But now, after centuries of servitude, Renfield is ready to see if there is a life outside his boss's shadow.Opening Weekend: $17,500,000
Domestic: $50,000,000
Foreign: $50,000,000
Worldwide: $100,000,000
RT: 69%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $8,026,475
Domestic: $17,152,625
Foreign: $9,475,885
Worldwide: $26,628,510
RT: 57%
Note: This film has some big names, like Nicholas Cage, Awkwafina, and Nicholas Hoult, and with a good director behind it, and Universal's oddball films succeeding, such as "M3GAN" and "Cocaine Bear", it could do well over April.
Edit: It seems like the line-up of Universal oddball movies has had its first clunker with "Renfield". Despite buzz around Nicolas Cage as Dracula, the Chris McKay vampire comedy opened to just below $8m, and with a B- CinemaScore, it had little-to-no legs throughout April, especially with horror competition from "The Pope's Exorcist" and "Evil Dead Rise". This could also be due to Universal being obviously focused on "The Super Mario Bros. Movie", and not focusing enough on "Renfield". Maybe at another date, it would've done okay, but not this one. - DirectorJulius AveryStarsRussell CroweDaniel ZovattoAlexandra EssoeFollow Gabriele Amorth, the Vatican's leading exorcist, as he investigates the possession of a child and uncovers a conspiracy the Vatican has tried to keep secret.Opening Weekend: $7,500,000
Domestic: $16,000,000
Foreign: $9,000,000
Worldwide: $25,000,000
RT: 32%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $9,006,368
Domestic: $20,007,064
Foreign: $32,897,023
Worldwide: $52,904,087
RT: 51%
Note: With other horror films coming right after this film's release, I doubt that it will have legs over April, being a box office flop.
Edit: Despite little-to-no interest initially, Sony was able to salvage "The Pope's Exorcist" despite mixed reception, leading to an okay debut amidst a sea of competition. While not great, its solid news for Russel Crowe as a star, though likely won't be too significant in the long-run. - DirectorLee CroninStarsMirabai PeaseRichard CrouchleyAnna-Maree ThomasA twisted tale of two estranged sisters whose reunion is cut short by the rise of flesh-possessing demons, thrusting them into a primal battle for survival as they face the most nightmarish version of family imaginable.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $50,000,000
Foreign: $35,000,000
Worldwide: $85,000,000
RT: 65%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $24,504,315
Domestic: $67,233,054
Foreign: $78,785,285
Worldwide: $146,018,339
RT: 84%
Note: Since "Evil Dead Rise" was supposed to be an HBO Max release, and is now a theatrical release, and the immensely weak advertising for "House Party" and "Magic Mike", which were also supposed to be on HBO Max, it might have a weak box office. However, with some buzz around it from SXSW and critics, it could overperform.
Edit: After a rough few months for Warner Bros. Discovery, they finally have their first hit with "Evil Dead Rise". The 5th installment in the franchise has done immensely well throughout April, bringing in a solid gross, and good word of mouth and reception from critics and audiences. This performance looks to be a winner for everyone involved, showing that this franchise still has some 'groove' to it. - DirectorAri AsterStarsJoaquin PhoenixPatti LuPoneAmy RyanFollowing the sudden death of his mother, a mild-mannered but anxiety-ridden man confronts his darkest fears as he embarks on an epic, Kafkaesque odyssey back home.Opening Weekend: $5,500,000
Domestic: $20,000,000
Foreign: $15,000,000
Worldwide: $35,000,000
RT: 87%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend (Limited): $320,396 ($80,099 Per-Theater Average)
Opening Weekend: $2,661,957
Domestic: $7,552,431
Foreign: $2,483,312
Worldwide: $10,035,743
RT: 68%
Note: Thanks to the little competition in April, and the star Joaquin Phoenix, plus even releasing on some IMAX screens, "Beau is Afraid" has the potential to be a small indie hit.
Edit: While "Beau is Afraid" is a per-theater darling, with the biggest since "Uncut Gems" back in 2019, the decent-mixed reception from critics and audiences, along with the $35m budget, means that it's unlikely "Beau is Afraid" will break even, and will lose money for A24. - DirectorGuy RitchieStarsJake GyllenhaalDar SalimSean SagarDuring the war in Afghanistan, a local interpreter risks his own life to carry an injured sergeant across miles of grueling terrain.Opening Weekend: $8,000,000
Domestic: $18,000,000
Foreign: $7,000,000
Worldwide: $25,000,000
RT: 67%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $6,380,188
Domestic: $16,938,039
Foreign: $2,625,227
Worldwide: $19,563,266
RT: 73%
Note: A military film set in Afghanistan releasing in April may not appeal audiences, and with the competition of smaller films in April, it may underperform.
Edit: It seems as if the days of Guy Ritchie being a big director is gone, as "The Covenant" is another bomb for the acclaimed director. Even if it does have some solid audience and critical reception, it doesn't seem to be enough to drive audiences to the theater, making it a loss for most involved. - DirectorKelly Fremon CraigStarsAbby Ryder FortsonRachel McAdamsKathy BatesWhen her family moves from the city to the suburbs, 11-year-old Margaret navigates new friends, feelings, and the beginning of adolescence.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $55,000,000
Foreign: $10,000,000
Worldwide: $65,000,000
RT: 77%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $6,739,037
Domestic: $20,372,406
Foreign: $1,125,786
Worldwide: $21,464,043
RT: 99%
Note: With Lionsgate succeeding to satisfy the Christian market with "Jesus Revolution", "Margaret" may do well, especially with a boost in the Christian market but will soon have to face "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" and others in May.
Edit: Even with previous success in the religious market with "Jesus Revolution", "Margaret" seems to be a misfire, with a immensely weak opening domestically. While it does have great reception from critics and audiences, competition from "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "The Little Mermaid" would prevent it from having any legs, making this movie a flop. - DirectorGeorge Tillman Jr.StarsKhris DavisJasmine MathewsSullivan JonesFueled by an impoverished childhood, George Foreman channeled his anger into becoming an Olympic Gold medalist and World Heavyweight Champion, followed by a near-death experience that took him from the boxing ring to the pulpit.Opening Weekend: $10,000,000
Domestic: $30,000,000
Foreign: $15,000,000
Worldwide: $45,000,000
RT: 78%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $2,925,364
Domestic: $5,426,541
Foreign: $604,430
Worldwide: $6,031,202
RT: 44%
Note: Sports biopics have never done well, with a few exceptions, and with this releasing in April, right before a blockbuster-filled May, it'll fall victim to these factors.
(And that Title is WAY too Long!)
Edit: For a release with a major studio behind it, and a release in over 3,000 theaters, "Big George Foreman" just barely made it over $3m over the 3-day weekend, an absolute embarrassment of a performance. And with weak reception across the board, this film looks to be D.O.A. at the box office. - DirectorJames GunnStarsChris PrattChukwudi IwujiBradley CooperStill reeling from the loss of Gamora, Peter Quill rallies his team to defend the universe and one of their own - a mission that could mean the end of the Guardians if not successful.Opening Weekend: $120,000,000
Domestic: $360,000,000
Foreign: $460,000,000
Worldwide: $820,000,000
RT: 87%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $118,414,021
Domestic: $358,995,815
Foreign: $486,559,962
Worldwide: $845,555,777
RT: 82%
Note: Even with the big gap between the 2nd and 3rd film, "Guardians of the Galaxy" is still a big franchise for Marvel, and with them being some of the best-received characters in the MCU. However, marketing hasn't quite hit the mark just yet, with presales for the James Gunn actioner being on-par with "Quantumania". So, while the performance of this film is in jeopardy, James Gunn has previously delivered praised content consistently, and with potential appeal to families like "Vol. 2", it could pull through and deliver a decent gross for the MCU.
Edit: While the opening weekend was a rough start for the James Gunn film, 'Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3' proves how word-of-mouth matters, as it has had the best hold in the MCU, with the best 2nd weekend in the MCU since 'Black Panther'. And with strong international numbers, especially from China, it's on its way to surpass 'Love and Thunder'. This shows that superhero fatigue is still a long way from coming, as general audiences will show up for comic book movies, and if it's good, will still make a solid amount of money. 'Guardians 3' also defies the 60%+ drops the MCU is having, and since the good legs should continue throughout its entire run, it should be able to make a solid profit. - DirectorJim StrouseStarsPriyanka Chopra JonasSam HeughanCéline DionA young woman tries to ease the pain of her fiancé's death by sending romantic texts to his old cell phone number, and forms a connection with the man the number has been reassigned to.Opening Weekend: $4,000,000
Domestic: $10,000,000
Foreign: $5,000,000
Worldwide: $15,000,000
RT: 73%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $2,380,962
Domestic: $6,230,837
Foreign: $4,500,000
Worldwide: $10,730,837
RT: 25%
Note: Usually, rom coms never do well at the box office, and I expect this film to fall in line with that notion, especially with all of the blockbuster competition in May, with "Fast X" and "Little Mermaid" coming right after it.
Edit: 'Love Again' seems to be another Sony bomb. With a gross likely less than even $7m, and horrible reviews, it seems as if the film was DOA during even pre-production. And with no hook other than new songs by Celine Dion, it was always destined to flop. - DirectorBill HoldermanStarsDiane KeatonJane FondaCandice BergenFollows the new journey of four best friends as they take their book club to Italy for the fun girls trip they never had.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $35,000,000
Foreign: $10,000,000
Worldwide: $45,000,000
RT: 59%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $6,677,580
Domestic: $17,556,340
Foreign: $11,380,064
Worldwide: $28,936,404
RT: 45%
Note: Like "80 for Brady", this is targeted towards a specific demographic. However, due to the 5-year break between the original, and "GOTG 3" as competition, it could weaken its box office, but will still find an audience.
Edit: It seems like this Club has little members, as 'Book Club: The Next Chapter' couldn't find its audience, as it has an opening weekend much lower than the 1st, and with the sea of competition here, it seems as if it's time for this club to end. - DirectorLouis LeterrierStarsVin DieselMichelle RodriguezJason StathamDom Toretto and his family are targeted by the vengeful son of drug kingpin Hernan Reyes.Opening Weekend: $80,000,000
Domestic: $170,000,000
Foreign: $650,000,000
Worldwide: $820,000,000
RT: 52%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $67,017,410
Domestic: $145,960,660
Foreign: $558,696,000
Worldwide: $704,656,660
RT: 56%
Note: Even with the Fast and Furious franchise dying in interest, their films are still successful, even F9, so Fast X could continue that. It'll perform on-par with other films on the franchise, and will still be a big hit internationally, so it will still be successful for the franchise. Although the troubled production could affect the success of this film's quality, and with the rumored ending, it could affect its legs significantly.
Edit: While not a horrible result for this ever-growing family, 'Fast and Furious' has some soul-searching to do. It's the lowest debut in the series since 2006, with even 'F9' ($70m) finishing above it in its opening. And it's easily the most expensive in the franchise with a $340m budget. Why is this? Ever since 2009, there has been a 'F&F' movie every two years if we include 'Hobbs and Shaw'. Ever since 2017, the franchise has been experiencing diminishing grosses, yet with the budgets increasing. While doing well internationally, domestic audiences may be suffering from Fast fatigue, as the trilogy Diesel and Universal had in mind is seemingly in jeopardy. - DirectorRob MarshallStarsHalle BaileyJonah Hauer-KingMelissa McCarthyA young mermaid makes a deal with a sea witch to trade her beautiful voice for human legs so she can discover the world above water and impress a prince.Opening Weekend: $100,000,000 ($120,000,000 4-Day)
Domestic: $350,000,000
Foreign: $300,000,000
Worldwide: $650,000,000
RT: 57%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $95,578,040 ($118,818,903 4-Day)
Domestic: $298,172,056
Foreign: $271,454,233
Worldwide: $569,626,289
RT: 67%
Note: Even if they're not well-received, the Disney Live-Action Remakes are still very successful. However, many Disney films are underperforming, and there doesn't seem to be as big of a demand of live-action-remakes as there once was. It could still do well, but might underperform due to its many cons. However, if the 90s nostalgia is strong, it could hold steady at the box office.
Edit: Like the movie above it, 'The Little Mermaid' is also a mixed bag out of the gate. While it has had a solid opening, and decent hold, looking to get a good domestic total. The word-of-mouth is great domestically, with an A CinemaScore and a decent critical score. However, international audiences, especially in Asia, rejected the movie, leading to a low worldwide opening. While having good reception and legs in Europe, it's falling fast in Asian markets. And with a $250m budget, with the film looking to finish below $650m, it's definitely not a horrible one, but not the result Disney was hoping for. - DirectorPeter AtencioStarsBert KreischerMark HamillJimmy TatroBert's drunken past catches up with him 20 years down the road when he and his father are kidnapped by those Bert wronged 20 years ago while drunk on a college semester abroad in Russia.Opening Weekend: $7,000,000
Domestic: $15,000,000
Foreign: $5,000,000
Worldwide: $20,000,000
RT: 28%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $5,000,545
Domestic: $10,458,331
Foreign: $205,997
Worldwide: $10,664,328
RT: 32%
Note: With the weak reception to the trailer, and absolutely no buzz surrounding this movie, plus multiple competitors throughout the summer, this film seems destined to flop.
Edit: As I said, with an immensely low opening, horrible legs, and a crowded summer, this film was DOA at the box office, making it another flop for Sony. (Shoutout to my friend for scoring the film though!) - DirectorNicole HolofcenerStarsAmber TamblynDavid CrossTobias MenziesA novelist's longstanding marriage is suddenly upended when she overhears her husband giving his honest reaction to her latest book.Opening Weekend: $3,000,000
Domestic: $10,000,000
Foreign: $7,500,000
Worldwide: $17,500,000
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $1,396,448
Domestic: $4,830,788
Foreign: $867,849
Worldwide: $5,698,637
RT: 94%
Note: With the early buzz at Sundance from cinephiles, I would expect this to perform a bit better than average, but similar to a standard A24 film.
Edit: While well-received among critics, audiences seem to reject the A24 dramedy, and will unlikely be any successful for the indie studio. - DirectorJoaquim Dos SantosKemp PowersJustin K. ThompsonStarsShameik MooreHailee SteinfeldBrian Tyree HenryMiles Morales catapults across the multiverse, where he encounters a team of Spider-People charged with protecting its very existence. When the heroes clash on how to handle a new threat, Miles must redefine what it means to be a hero.Opening Weekend: $105,000,000
Domestic: $340,000,000
Foreign: $360,000,000
Worldwide: $700,000,000
RT: 95%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $120,663,589
Domestic: $381,311,319
Foreign: $308,623,882
Worldwide: $689,935,201
RT: 95%
Note: With the growing popularity and praise for "Into the Spider-Verse", I expect that to carry onto the box office. With more hype than the first film, it can do much better than it, and could be a hit not only in the world of superhero films, but also the world of animation films.
Edit: Five years ago, 'Into the Spider-Verse' opened to just $35m during December. Now, in June 2023, after years of growing its popularity with streaming, a video game, and a growth in popularity for the Spider-Verse brand, 'Across the Spider-Verse' dazzles with a debut of over $208m worldwide, and $120m domestic, the 6th biggest of all time for an animated film, and is already on pace to surpass the 1st film by over 75%, and could be one of the highest grossing films of the year, especially with phenomenal critical and audience reception. And while they've made many mistakes, Sony has masterfully calculated how to grow the Spider-Verse brand to an opening this successful, and could lead to one of their most profitable films, a true success for everyone involved, and a great indication of what 'Beyond the Spider-Verse' could do at the box office. - DirectorRob SavageStarsSophie ThatcherChris MessinaVivien Lyra BlairStill reeling from the tragic death of their mother, a teenage girl and her younger sister find themselves plagued by a sadistic presence in their house and struggle to get their grieving father to pay attention before it's too late.Opening Weekend: $10,000,000
Domestic: $30,000,000
Foreign: $25,000,000
Worldwide: $55,000,000
RT: 63%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $12,356,486
Domestic: $43,244,282
Foreign: $24,062,961
Worldwide: $67,307,243
RT: 60%
Note: Thanks to the success of "Barbarian", and the limited amount of horror fare throughout the summer, "The Boogeyman" looks to be a decent box office hit for 20th Century Studios, one of their only hits post-Disney Aquisition. - DirectorSteven Caple Jr.StarsAnthony RamosDominique FishbackLuna Lauren VelezDuring the '90s, a new faction of Transformers - the Maximals - join the Autobots as allies in the battle for Earth.Opening Weekend: $50,000,000
Domestic: $125,000,000
Foreign: $350,000,000
Worldwide: $475,000,000
RT: 50%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $61,045,464
Domestic: $157,066,392
Foreign: $281,900,000
Worldwide: $438,966,392
RT: 52%
Note: With Paramount attempt to revive the "Transformers" franchise, this film could have better legs than other films in the franchise, but with the Transformers franchise losing interest, and with the competition in June, it can underperform.
Edit: While not a horrible performance of any means, it seems like 'Rise of the Beasts' can't take on this crowded summer, with the film falling below $20m this weekend. And while doing decently internationally, it hasn't lit the box office on fire in most territories. This shows that while the 'Transformers' brand still has some life inside of it, it was a bit too soon to come out with another installment in the franchise, and with the horrible release date it was given, it seems to be shaping up as a bit of a dud for Paramount, especially with the $200m budget. - DirectorAndy MuschiettiStarsEzra MillerMichael KeatonSasha CalleBarry Allen uses his super speed to change the past, but his attempt to save his family creates a world without super heroes, forcing him to race for his life in order to save the future.Opening Weekend: $90,000,000
Domestic: $200,000,000
Foreign: $300,000,000
Worldwide: $500,000,000
RT: 79%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $55,043,679
Domestic: $108,133,313
Foreign: $162,500,000
Worldwide: $270,633,313
RT: 63%
Note: Due to many claims stating that "The Flash" is a fantastic comic book film, and all the buzz around this film from Cinemacon and celebrities, plus the appearances of Michael Keaton's Batman, Zod, and Supergirl, I will say that some may not show up due to the crimes of Ezra Miller, but I do think that audiences will still be excited for the film. And if it's as good as many claim, we could be seeing a major hit in Warner Bros.' hands.
Edit: What a disaster. For months now, Warner Bros. Discovery has been praising 'The Flash' non-stop, and trying to spread goodwill around the film with CinemaCon, early fan-screenings, and multiple celebrities calling it one of the great superhero movies. Promotion was also immensely present for the Andy Muschietti film. There was a Superbowl ad, constant TV promotion, and billboards across cities. All of that, for a film that might not even reach $300m worldwide on a budget of $220m. Why did 'The Flash' flop so hard? It's not a simple question though. One reason is the controversial figure that is Ezra Miller. For the past years, there has been many reports of Ezra Miller's crimes, such as grooming, breaking-and-entering, physical assault, etc., thus being a major turn-off to the film. Another reason is the completely broken DC EU. For the past years, there has been nothing but bombs for the cinematic universe, starting back in early 2020 with 'Birds of Prey'. And each of these bomb hinders the DC brand, making it a label that people don't want to be associated with amongst the general audience. And the nostalgia angle wasn't effective, as Michael Keaton as Batman doesn't carry much nostalgia, and the many cameos in the movie were not received well. Speaking of that, audiences seem to completely reject the movie, giving it a B CinemaScore, tied for the lowest in the DCEU. And with the -72% drop in the 2nd weekend, it might struggle to reach a 2x multiplier. So, in all, this was a complete failure for everyone involved, and no amount of manufactured praise can save this movie. - DirectorPeter SohnStarsLeah LewisMamoudou AthieRonnie Del CarmenFollows Ember and Wade, in a city where fire-, water-, earth- and air-residents live together.Opening Weekend: $35,000,000
Domestic: $160,000,000
Foreign: $240,000,000
Worldwide: $400,000,000
RT: 79%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $29,602,429
Domestic: $154,426,697
Foreign: $336,508,404
Worldwide: $490,935,101
RT: 74%
Note: Post-Pandemic Pixar & Disney Animation films have done very poorly at the box office, and despite a decent amount of interest around 'Elemental', audiences are still trained to watch Pixar films are Disney+, I doubt this will do much good for the Pixar brand, and could likely underperform.
Edit: After a rough few years at the box office for Pixar, the trend is starting to get better with the release of Pixar's 'Elemental'. After an immensely rough opening weekend of $29.6M, the 2nd lowest in Pixar history, thanks to great audience scores, shown by the A CinemaScore, plus no animated competition releasing until 'TMNT' in early August, it has shown remarkable legs at the box office, surpassing both 'Lightyear' and 'The Good Dinosaur', and it's on its way to a worldwide total of $425m-$500m, showing the immense power of word-of-mouth. This also shows that there's still interest in Disney/Pixar animated films, a good sign for 'Wish', coming out in November. It's also a win for animation in general, proving that original animation still has potential at the box office. While the $200m budget is a detractor to its success, the fact that it might break even after all is remarkable, showing that the Pixar brand is alive. - DirectorTim StoryStarsGrace ByersJermaine FowlerMelvin GreggSeven friends go away for the weekend and end up trapped in a cabin with a killer who has a vendetta. Will their street smarts and knowledge of horror movies help them stay alive? Probably not.Opening Weekend: $6,000,000
Domestic: $16,000,000
Foreign: $4,000,000
Worldwide: $20,000,000
RT: 62%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $6,013,131
Domestic: $17,707,207
Foreign: $462,246
Worldwide: $18,169,453
RT: 87%
Note: With the mixed-positive reception to the trailer, it's evident that this film does have an audience. However, due to all of the comedies this summer. it could likely get lost in the abundance, and won't be a huge it for Lionsgate. - DirectorWes AndersonStarsJason SchwartzmanScarlett JohanssonTom HanksFollowing a writer on his world famous fictional play about a grieving father who travels with his tech-obsessed family to small rural Asteroid City to compete in a junior stargazing event, only to have his world view disrupted forever.Opening Weekend: $10,000,000
Domestic: $25,000,000
Foreign: $20,000,000
Worldwide: $45,000,000
RT: 92%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend (Wide): $9,053,551
Domestic: $28,153,025
Foreign: $24,294,000
Worldwide: $52,447,025
RT: 75%
Note: While the main stars of the film are huge names, the film just seems like a standard Wes Anderson film, and with him not being a huge box office draw, I don't expect any different from "Asteroid City".
Edit: Due to good will from its premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, plus a popular director, Wes Anderson, who's rising in popularity on social media, 'Asteroid City' was able to deliver a solid performance for an indie film so far this summer, with a fantastic per-theater average in its limited window, and a decent performance worldwide. - DirectorGene StupnitskyStarsJennifer LawrenceAndrew Barth FeldmanLaura BenantiOn the brink of losing her home, Maddie finds an intriguing job listing: helicopter parents looking for someone to bring their introverted 19-year-old son out of his shell before college. She has one summer to make him a man or die trying.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $40,000,000
Foreign: $20,000,000
Worldwide: $60,000,000
RT: 52%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $15,002,770
Domestic: $50,452,282
Foreign: $36,625,993
Worldwide: $87,078,275
RT: 71%
Note: Comedies haven't been doing well recently. However, the strong reception to the trailer, with over 50m views, the biggest for a comedy in a while, it could overperform and do okay.
Edit: Amidst all of the June underperformers
Sony can at least celebrate that 'No Hard Feelings' is doing okay at the box office, with a solid opening weekend, both domestic and worldwide. And while the $45m budget does slightly hinder its performance, it should easily make it back on digital. While not a fantastic debut, it does show that Jennifer Lawrence is still a solid box office draw, despite her break. And with decent reception with a 68% RT and a B+ CinemaScore, it could have decent legs throughout its run. - DirectorJames MangoldStarsHarrison FordPhoebe Waller-BridgeAntonio BanderasArchaeologist Indiana Jones races against time to retrieve a legendary artifact that can change the course of history.Opening Weekend: $60,000,000
Domestic: $165,000,000
Foreign: $245,000,000
Worldwide: $410,000,000
RT (100+ Reviews): 61%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $60,368,101
Domestic: $174,480,468
Foreign: $208,749,460
Worldwide: $383,229,928
RT: 69%
Note: Even though "Indiana Jones" is an iconic franchise, it's hard to know if nostalgia will carry this film, or if audiences aren't interested in this film. But nostalgia has been a huge factor into many movie's successes, like "No Way Home" and "Top Gun: Maverick". However, with the mixed-negative early reviews from Cannes, it seems as if it won't be the crowd pleaser Disney thinks it will be. Nostalgia should still play a part, yet the potential reception could affect box office.
Edit: Another addition to the list of summer box office bombs of 2023. Being the 1st Indiana Jones film in 15 years, it made less than half of what 'Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' made 15 years ago non-adjusted for inflation and is easily the lowest grossing Indy film by far when adjusted for inflation, especially when you consider that the original trilogy came out over 40 years ago at this point. And with the $300M budget, plus a sizable marketing budget, 'Dial of Destiny' will go down as one of the biggest box office failures of all time. Why did this happen? For starters, the Indiana Jones franchise was significantly past its prime, especially with the mixed reactions to 'Crystal Skull'. This isn't a 'Top Gun' or a 'No Way Home' situation, since there was little interest in seeing the story of Indiana Jones continue, and the reception wasn't nearly as good as the original trilogy, both with critics and audiences. 'Dial of Destiny' got a 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, not bad, but the lowest in the franchise. It also got a B+ CinemaScore, just above the B 'Crystal Skull' got (though 'Raiders' and 'Temple of Doom' were released before CinemaScore became a thing). Overall, this will go down as a stain on most people involved with this film, and as one of, if not the biggest box office bomb of 2023. - DirectorKirk DeMiccoFaryn PearlStarsJane FondaLana CondorToni ColletteA shy adolescent learns that she comes from a fabled royal family of legendary sea krakens and that her destiny lies in the depths of the waters, which is bigger than she could have ever imagined.Opening Weekend: $6,000,000
Domestic: $15,000,000
Foreign: $25,000,000
Worldwide: $40,000,000
RT: 61%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $5,500,990
Domestic: $15,753,600
Foreign: $28,015,906
Worldwide: $43,769,506
RT: 66%
Note: With Universal not dating this film until three months before it came out, and with the competition in June, I doubt this will be able to survive the month. - DirectorPatrick WilsonStarsTy SimpkinsPatrick WilsonRose ByrneThe Lamberts must go deeper into The Further than ever before to put their demons to rest once and for all.Opening Weekend: $25,000,000
Domestic: 60,000,000
Foreign: $60,000,000
Worldwide: $120,000,000
RT: 43%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $33,013,036
Domestic: $82,156,962
Foreign: $106,430,720
Worldwide: $188,587,682
RT: 38%
Note: Even if the Insidious franchise being relatively well known, its never been a huge franchise, and I think this will fall in line with that.
Edit: Even with all of the competition, there hasn't been much breakout horror this summer yet, and 'The Red Door' managed to capitalize on that, grossing an impressive $120M after just 12 days at the worldwide box office. Thanks to 'Insidious' being a popular PG-13 horror brand that has a consistent audience, it was able to succeed over the post-July 4th holiday weekend. - DirectorAdele LimStarsAshley ParkSherry ColaStephanie HsuFollows four Asian American friends as they bond and discover the truth of what it means to know and love who you are, while they travel through China in search of one of their birth mothers.Opening Weekend: $6,000,000
Domestic: $15,000,000
Foreign: $15,000,000
Worldwide: $30,000,000
RT: 79%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $5,806,277
Domestic: $12,897,789
Foreign: $2,884,747
Worldwide: $12,897,789
RT: 90%
Note: With the surprising amount of comedies this summer, that could likely affect the box office. However, due positive reception at SXSW and Cinemacon, and the rising star of Stephanie Hsu, it could overperform, leading to one of the rare comedy success stories.
Edit: Even with the positive reception to the comedy 'No Hard Feelings', 'Joy Ride' still suffered a disappointing box office. Like many films this summer, the overpopulation has hurt the market, making it hard to break out to a wider audience. Plus, the film really has no star power (Stephanie Hsu could be argued as one, but she's likely more in the up-and-coming zone rather in the star one). And with unremarkable legs, 'Joy Ride' will likely end up as a flop. - DirectorChristopher McQuarrieStarsTom CruiseHayley AtwellVing RhamesEthan Hunt and his IMF team must track down a dangerous weapon before it falls into the wrong hands.Opening Weekend: $70,000,000 ($105M 5-Day)
Domestic: $250,000,000
Foreign: $550,000,000
Worldwide: $800,000,000
RT: 90%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $54,688,347 ($78,491,897 5-Day)
Domestic: $172,135,383
Foreign: $395,400,000
Worldwide: $567,535,383
RT: 96%
Note: With Tom Cruise's recent success in "Top Gun: Maverick", I believe it will carry onto "Dead Reckoning" and will top "Fallout" as the biggest Mission: Impossible film, and by somewhat of a decent margin.
Edit: It seems that the Top Gun: Maverick hype couldn't be carried over to 'Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One', as the film faltered at the box office, coming in much lower than the last three Mission: Impossible film ('Ghost Protocol', 'Rogue Nation, 'Fallout'). The film also has a $290M production budget, making it a box office flop for Paramount, one of many this year. One of the biggest reasons for the underperformance was a terrible release date, not only releasing around 'Sound of Freedom', a conservative juggernaut, but also releasing a week before 'Barbenheimer', the biggest film event of the year, with both 'Barbie' and especially 'Oppenheimer' taking audiences and premium screens from 'Dead Reckoning'. Another possible reason why 'Dead Reckoning' faltered is due to the lack of significant growth of popularity in the M:I franchise from 'Fallout' and 'DR', and with over seven films in the decades-old franchise, it's bound to experience some audience fatigue. So while it's not an awful result, especially with the international box office, it's still a massive disappointment for Paramount and Tom Cruise, especially after 'Top Gun: Maverick. - DirectorGreta GerwigStarsMargot RobbieRyan GoslingIssa RaeBarbie and Ken are having the time of their lives in the colorful and seemingly perfect world of Barbie Land. However, when they get a chance to go to the real world, they soon discover the joys and perils of living among humans.Opening Weekend: $150,000,000
Domestic: $450,000,000
Foreign: $550,000,000
Worldwide: $1,000,000,000
RT: 85%
Actual Result:
Opening Weekend: $162,022,044
Domestic: $633,076,874
Foreign: $800,900,000
Worldwide: $1,433,976,874
RT: 88%
Note: While coming out in a competitive marketplace, it seems that 'Barbie' has all the makings to be a huge hit at the box office. The fact that Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, both prestigious names in Hollywood, are directing and writing respectively, could attract cinephiles, a small but loud audience. Barbie is also a huge draw for families, despite the PG-13 rating, with women and young girls being the main target audience. And with the film being huge on social media, with a new trend similar to 'Minions: The Rise of Gru', we could be seeing a major box office success in the making.
Edit: 'Barbie', the breakout hit of the year. Grossing over $1.4B, it became the highest grossing film of this year, the highest grossing film with a solo female-director in Greta Gerwig, the highest grossing film for both Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, the highest grossing film in Warner Bros. history, and so much more records. - DirectorChristopher NolanStarsCillian MurphyEmily BluntMatt DamonThe story of American scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer and his role in the development of the atomic bomb.Opening Weekend: $70,000,000
Domestic: $250,000,000
Foreign: $380,000,000
Worldwide: $630,000,000
RT: 83%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $82,455,420
Domestic: $322,462,065
Foreign: $611,344,000
Worldwide: $933,806,065
RT: 93%
Note: With Christopher Nolan films usually being a success, I do expect a slight departure with Oppenheimer. Due to the current box office landscape, it will do lower than other Nolan films. Plus, with the depressing nature of the film, it doesn't quite fit with the summer box office. But if it does attract older audiences, it could do quite well, especially in terms of legs. Plus, the Barbenheimer phenomenon could increase its potential box office.
(The 1st in a Hilarious Box Office Paring) - DirectorJustin SimienStarsLaKeith StanfieldRosario DawsonOwen WilsonA single mom named Gabbie hires a tour guide, a psychic, a priest and a historian to help exorcise her newly bought mansion after discovering it is inhabited by ghosts.Opening Weekend: $20,000,00
Domestic: $65,000,000
Foreign: $75,000,000
Worldwide: $140,000,000
RT: 44%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $24,082,475
Domestic: $67,185,763
Foreign: $47,188,624
Worldwide: $114,374,387
RT: 37%
Note: With "Jungle Cruise" being a flop at the box office, I see "Haunted Mansion" also flopping at the box office, with many competitors in July and August against it, especially Barbenheimer, and no room to even breath throughout its run at the box office.
Edit: 'Haunted Mansion' is another addition to Disney's dismal year, as the adaptation of a popular ride at Disney theme parks had a massively disappointing performance, grossing just barely over $110M worldwide on a massive budget of $150M (the cheapest Disney film this year). One of the main issues was Disney not capitalizing on the Halloween box office with 'Haunted Mansion', rather putting the film in a much more competitive July, having to go against 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer', diminishing
legs. The film just had little awareness as well, with general audiences not interested in the Disney ride adaptations besides 'Caribbean' (Jungle Cruise flopped just a few years ago). All of these factors result in another Disney 100 disappointment. - DirectorJeff RoweKyler SpearsStarsMicah AbbeyShamon Brown Jr.Nicolas CantuThe Turtle brothers work to earn the love of New York City while facing down an army of mutants.Opening Weekend: $35,000,000 ($50,000,000 5-Day)
Domestic: $160,000,000
Foreign: $100,000,000
Worldwide: $260,000,000
RT: 90%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $28,007,544 ($43,081,012 5-Day)
Domestic: $$117,482,630
Foreign: $59,200,000
Worldwide: $176,682,630
RT: 96%
Note: With the "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" franchise being a huge one for Paramount, and some solid talent behind this film, and with no competition until November, this could be a breakout hit over August and September, and be a franchise hit for Paramount.
(Quite frankly, it could be the "Puss in Boots" of 2023, in terms of legs and performance.)
Edit: While not a bad result for 'Mutant Mayhem', in terms of the 'TMNT' franchise and Nickelodeon Movies, the final box office result is a bit disappointing for the film. The film did pretty good domestically, grossing over $117m, the 3rd biggest in the TMNT franchise, and was the biggest film in August domestically. However, it did massively underperform internationally, coming in just under $60m, a far cry from what the Michael Bay TMNT films did overseas. While not a great BO result, the film should easily be profitable, not just with the low $70m budget, but also selling over $1b in merchandise, so 'Mutant Mayhem' while not a big box office win, is a success for Nickelodeon overall. - DirectorBen WheatleyStarsJason StathamJing WuShuya Sophia CaiA research team encounters multiple threats while exploring the depths of the ocean, including a malevolent mining operation.Opening Weekend: $16,000,000
Domestic: $40,000,000
Foreign: $340,000,000
Worldwide: $380,000,000
RT: 38%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $30,002,735
Domestic: $82,532,554
Foreign: $312,400,000
Worldwide: $394,932,554
RT: 28%
Note: While the first "Meg" did decent at the box office, there isn't a lot of people interested in this being a franchise, So I don't think it will do as well as the first one. However, overseas interest, especially in China, is large for the film, so it could falter in most markets, but will still do really strong in Asia.
Edit: While 'Meg 2' did decrease from it's predecessor by a decent amount, it still made enough to be considered a solid hit by Warner Bros. Despite terrible reception with an 28% RT score and a B- CinemaScore, it still held decently, getting to an 2.75x multiplier. While it did decrease significantly from the original in many markets, China still showed up for the shark-sequel, especially since Wu Jing co-starred Jason Statham in the film, becoming the 2nd highest grossing China gross for a Hollywood-related film this year, only behind 'Fast X', earning $116M. While not a great win, it is a decent success for Warner Bros. overall. - DirectorAndré ØvredalStarsCorey HawkinsAisling FranciosiLiam CunninghamA crew sailing from Varna (Bulgaria) by the Black Sea to England find that they are carrying very dangerous cargo.Opening Weekend: $7,500,000
Domestic: $17,500,000
Foreign: $7,500,000
Worldwide: $25,000,000
RT: 52%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $6,504,950
Domestic: $13,637,180
Foreign: $8,042,853
Worldwide: $21,680,033
RT: 49%
Note: With a Dracula film already releasing earlier this year, I don't expect audiences to be interested in this one, especially due to the lack of star power.
Edit: Universal's second Dracula-related film this year was another underperformer, grossing just half of its $45M budget. It seemed obvious that the film wasn't going to break out due to a very crowded marketplace, and with a lack of a marketing campaign, it easily became a flop. - DirectorAngel Manuel SotoStarsXolo MaridueñaBruna MarquezineBecky GAn alien scarab chooses Jaime Reyes to be its symbiotic host, bestowing the recent college graduate with a suit of armor that's capable of extraordinary powers, forever changing his destiny as he becomes the superhero known as Blue Beetle.Opening Weekend: $20,000,000
Domestic: $60,000,000
Foreign: $60,000,000
Worldwide: $120,000,000
RT: 43%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $25,030,225
Domestic: $71,039,537
Foreign: $56,300,000
Worldwide: $127,339,537
RT: 79%
Note: The DCEU has been struggling at the box office with "Shazam! Fury of the Gods' and 'The Flash' being some of the worst bombs of the year. The film has also barely been promoted besides a couple TV Spots, and the actors not being able to do press due to the actors strike. And with little interest in the film, it could be the lowest-grossing film for the DCEU yet.
Edit: Once again, another DCEU film underwhelmed at the box office, with 'Blue Beetle' officially the lowest grossing DCEU film ever worldwide. Despite getting overall positive reception, with a good RT score and a solid 2.9x multiplier off of a B+ CinemaScore, it wasn't enough to save the movie, due to the fact that the DCEU was a completely dead franchise, with two movies already bombing this year, and Blue Beetle not being a well-known character amongst general audiences, not to mention superhero fatigue being on the rise, the film fizzled out at the box office. It did at least manage to outgross Shazam 2 though, so that's at least a small win. - DirectorJosh GreenbaumStarsWill FerrellJamie FoxxIsla FisherAn abandoned dog teams up with other strays to get revenge on his former owner.Opening Weekend: $7,500,000
Domestic: $17,500,000
Foreign: $12,500,000
Worldwide: $30,000,000
RT: 41%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $8,247,810
Domestic: $23,988,885
Foreign: $10,749,642
Worldwide: $34,738,527
RT: 54%
Note: With adult animation comedies doing very poorly across the years, and with little interest in this film, I expect 'Strays' to be no different, and will flop at the box office. - DirectorAntoine FuquaStarsDenzel WashingtonDakota FanningEugenio MastrandreaRobert McCall finds himself at home in Southern Italy but he discovers his friends are under the control of local crime bosses. As events turn deadly, McCall knows what he has to do: become his friends' protector by taking on the mafia.Opening Weekend: $35,000,000
Domestic: $95,000,000
Foreign: $85,000,000
Worldwide: $170,000,000
RT: 58%
Opening Weekend: $34,604,229 ($42,815,433 4-Day Labor Day)
Domestic: $92,373,751
Foreign: $98,617,316
Worldwide: $190,991,067
RT: 75%
Note: "The Equalizer" franchise has been a relatively successful franchise, and with Labor Day, and most of September to itself, it could be a moderate hit to close out the summer season.
Edit: The Equalizer 3 still continues to be a remarkably consistent franchise, with the 3rd and final entry grossing almost the same as the previous two entries in the series. A reason for the stunning consistency amongst the 'Equalizer' franchise is because Denzel Washington and the franchise itself have a core demographic built in to show up for each new installment, that being older movie goers. - DirectorNeill BlomkampStarsDavid HarbourOrlando BloomArchie MadekweBased on the unbelievable, inspiring true story of a team of underdogs - a struggling, working-class gamer, a failed former race car driver, and an idealistic motorsport exec - who risk it all to take on the most elite sport in the world.Opening Weekend: $30,000,000
Domestic: $75,000,000
Foreign: $110,000,000
Worldwide: $185,000,000
RT: 55%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $17,410,552
Domestic: $42,805,757
Foreign: $72,000,000
Worldwide: $114,805,757
RT: 65%
Note: While "Uncharted" was a good success, "Gran Turismo" doesn't have as big of a fanbase, and it's not as mainstream as "Uncharted", so it might do okay, but not the results Sony might've wanted. - DirectorMichael ChavesStarsTaissa FarmigaJonas BloquetStorm Reid1956 - France. A priest is murdered. An evil is spreading. The sequel to the worldwide smash hit follows Sister Irene as she once again comes face-to-face with Valak, the demon nun.Opening Weekend: $40,000,000
Domestic: $110,000,000
Foreign: $135,000,000
Worldwide: $245,000,000
RT: 65%
Opening Weekend: $32,603,336
Domestic: $76,883,406
Foreign: $155,800,000
Worldwide: $232,683,406
RT: 52%
Note: While "The Nun" was a solid performer at the box office, "The Conjuring" franchise has been faltering, so I expect this to do okay, but much less than the original. - DirectorKenneth BranaghStarsKenneth BranaghMichelle YeohJamie DornanIn post-World War II Venice, Poirot, now retired and living in his own exile, reluctantly attends a seance. But when one of the guests is murdered, it is up to the former detective to once again uncover the killer.Opening Weekend: $12,000,000
Domestic: $35,000,000
Foreign: $70,000,000
Worldwide: $105,000,000
RT: 69%
Opening Weekend: $14,079,512
Domestic: $31,440,955
Foreign: $58,517,705
Worldwide: $89,958,660
RT: 76%
Note: Kenneth Branagh's crime/mystery films have performed okay at the box office, and I expect this film to solidify that notion. - DirectorNia VardalosStarsNia VardalosJohn CorbettLouis MandylorAfter the death of the family's patriarch, Toula attempts to locate her father's childhood friends in Greece for a family reunion.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $45,000,000
Foreign: $25,000,000
Worldwide: $70,000,000
RT: 32%
Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $10,028,675
Domestic: $26,378,650
Foreign: $8,497,000
Worldwide: $34,875,650
RT: 30%
Note: "My Big fat Greek Wedding" while a franchise, isn't a strong one. The rising popularity in romantic comedies for older audiences could help it, though I doubt it'll even match the sequel. Surprising how Universal decided to even make a third one. - DirectorScott WaughStarsJason Statham50 CentMegan FoxArmed with every weapon they can get their hands on, the Expendables are the world's last line of defense and the team that gets called when all other options are off the table.Opening Weekend: $10,000,000
Domestic: $25,000,000
Foreign: $50,000,000
Worldwide: $75,000,000
RT: 27%
Opening Weekend: $14,079,512
Domestic: $13,270,854
Foreign: $25,170,774
Worldwide: $38,441,628
RT: 12%
Note: With a 9-year break between the 3rd "Expendables" film, and the lack of general interest, I expect the franchise's return to massively underperform at the box office. - DirectorCal BrunkerStarsDan DuranKristen BellJames MarsdenA magical meteor falls in Adventure City and gives the PAW Patrol superpowers, transforming them into the Mighty Pups. But they face their most powerful challenge when Humdinger teams up with a mad scientist to steal their powers.Opening Weekend: $20,000,000
Domestic: $70,000,000
Foreign: $80,000,000
Worldwide: $150,000,000
RT: 71%
Opening Weekend: $22,764,354
Domestic: $22,764,354
Foreign: $24,400,000
Worldwide: $47,164,354
RT: 83%
Note: Since "Paw Patrol" is a huge kids franchise, and the first movie did okay, I expect the sequel could top it, and do relatively well for Paramount and Nickelodeon. - DirectorKevin GreutertStarsTobin BellShawnee SmithSynnøve Macody LundA sick and desperate John travels to Mexico for a risky and experimental medical procedure in hopes of a miracle cure for his cancer only to discover the entire operation is a scam to defraud the most vulnerable.Opening Weekend: $20,000,000
Domestic: $45,000,000
Foreign: $45,000,000
Worldwide: $90,000,000
RT: 44%
Opening Weekend: $18,309,301
Domestic: $18,309,301
Foreign: $11,300,000
Worldwide: $29,609,301
RT: 82%
Note: It's been a while since a mainline "Saw" film, and while I believe it will have a solid opening weekend, I doubt it will have legs, but if it has a low budget, it could make a decent profit. - DirectorGareth EdwardsStarsJohn David WashingtonMadeleine Yuna VoylesGemma ChanAgainst the backdrop of a war between humans and robots with artificial intelligence, a former soldier finds the secret weapon, a robot in the form of a young child.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $40,000,000
Foreign: $45,000,000
Worldwide: $85,000,000
RT: 60%
Actual Result:
Opening Weekend: $14,079,512
Domestic: $14,079,512
Foreign: $18,349,081
Worldwide: $$32,428,593
RT: 68%
Note: Original sci-fi films are immensely suffering at the box office, and despite some of the buzz around this trailer, it also doesn't seem like it'll reach a wide audience, and will likely underperform, yet another 20th Century Studios bomb. - DirectorDavid Gordon GreenStarsLafortune JosephLeslie Odom Jr.Gastner LegermeWhen two girls disappear into the woods and return three days later with no memory of what happened to them, the father of one girl seeks out Chris MacNeil, who's been forever altered by what happened to her daughter fifty years ago.Opening Weekend: $25,000,000
Domestic: $45,000,000
Foreign: $65,000,000
Worldwide: $110,000,000
RT: 38%
Note: "The Exorcist" is an iconic horror film, but the others in the franchise haven't done nearly as well. And with mediocre reception to the trailers played in front of Oppenheimer, and the oversaturation of the Exorcist concept, it will likely underperform at the box office. - DirectorSam WrenchStarsTaylor SwiftMike MeadowsMax BernsteinExperience the Eras Tour concert, performed by the one and only Taylor Swift.Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $92,804,678
Domestic: $92,804,678
Foreign: $30,700,000
Worldwide: $123,504,678
RT: 100%
Edit: While did fall short of many of the projections the trades had for this film, this performance is absolutely nothing to scoff at. Taylor Swift continues to dominate pop culture, easily becoming the highest grossing concert film of all time not just domestically, but also worldwide as well in just its opening weekend. It's also the 2nd biggest October opening of all time, just behind 'Joker' ($96.2m). This opening goes to prove how popular Taylor Swift is domestically and across the world, being the most popular current music artist, and the importance of internet hype in the modern days of the box office. - DirectorMartin ScorseseStarsLeonardo DiCaprioRobert De NiroLily GladstoneWhen oil is discovered in 1920s Oklahoma under Osage Nation land, the Osage people are murdered one by one - until the FBI steps in to unravel the mystery.Opening Weekend (Wide): $40,000,000
Domestic: $135,000,000
Foreign: $110,000,000
Worldwide: $245,000,000
RT (100+ Reviews): 98%
Note: "Killers of the Flower Moon" has the potential to do great at the box office, due to an acclaimed director and actor in Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio respectively. The film is also based on a popular book about the Osage murderers, a well-known event. Plus, 'Oppenheimer' being such a hit shows that there's still an audience for prestigious drama films. And with this being a huge awards front-runner, it could be a hit for Martin Scorsese at the box office.
Edit: - DirectorEmma TammiStarsJosh HutchersonPiper RubioElizabeth LailA troubled security guard begins working at Freddy Fazbear's Pizza. During his first night on the job, he realizes that the night shift won't be so easy to get through. Pretty soon he will unveil what actually happened at Freddy's.Opening Weekend: $95,000,000
Domestic: $220,000,000
Foreign: $185,000,000
Worldwide: $405,000,000
RT: 42%
Note: Ever since the first teaser debuted for 'Five Nights at Freddy's' a few months back, there has been lots of hype surrounding the video game adaptation. Trailers constantly trend on social media, with the teaser gaining over 77M+ views on Twitter, Youtube, etc. And with no other major horror movies releasing in October, it should be able to continue the momentum surrounding the film. However, due to the Peacock release, it shows that Universal may not be that confident in the film, and it'll likely suffer in terms of legs, but not before it makes a great amount of money in it's opening weekend, and will likely be a success anyways. - DirectorNia DaCostaStarsBrie LarsonTeyonah ParrisIman VellaniCarol Danvers gets her powers entangled with those of Kamala Khan and Monica Rambeau, forcing them to work together to save the universe.Opening Weekend: $70,000,000
Domestic: $170,000,000
Foreign: $260,000,000
Worldwide: $430,000,000
RT: 60%
Note: With a common trend of MCU sequels opening lower than the predecessors (Thor 4 & Wakanda Forever), I expect 'The Marvels' to continue that trend, but to a much larger degree, since this is less of a sequel to "Captain Marvel", but more of a buddy movie featuring three unknown characters. Captain Marvel, however, is known relatively well by general audiences, but has not left a significant mark on the MCU yet, unlike Doctor Strange or even Ant-Man. - DirectorFrancis LawrenceStarsRachel ZeglerTom BlythViola DavisCoriolanus Snow mentors and develops feelings for the female District 12 tribute during the 10th Hunger Games.Opening Weekend: $45,000,000
Domestic: $135,000,000
Foreign: $125,000,000
Worldwide: $260,000,000
RT: 87%
Note: Even though the "Hunger Games" franchise being a phenomenon back in the early 2010s, hype for the franchise has died down significantly, and with competition from 'Dune', 'Wish' and 'The Marvels'. However, due to reports that this film is actually quite good, it could do decent enough to not be a failure, but will fall behind previous entries. Another struggle is how this film appears to cater towards huge "Hunger Games" fans, limiting their audience. - DirectorWalt DohrnTim HeitzStarsAnna KendrickJustin TimberlakeKenan ThompsonPoppy discovers that Branch was once part of the boy band 'BroZone' with his brothers, Floyd, John Dory, Spruce and Clay. When Floyd is kidnapped, Branch and Poppy embark on a journey to reunite his two other brothers and rescue Floyd.Opening Weekend: $35,000,000
Domestic: $110,000,000
Foreign: $145,000,000
Worldwide: $255,000,000
RT: 64%
Note: With the "Trolls" franchise being successful for Dreamworks, I could see families showing up for the new installment, and even with the 2nd film going straight to digital for a $20 rental fee, it could still be a decent hit in theaters. - DirectorEli RothStarsPatrick DempseyTy OlssonGina GershonAfter a Black Friday riot ends in tragedy, a mysterious Thanksgiving-inspired killer terrorizes Plymouth, Massachusetts - the birthplace of the infamous holiday.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $35,000,000
Foreign: $10,000,000
Worldwide: $45,000,000
RT: 42%
Note: While there is a novelty to a Thanksgiving horror movie, I doubt it will have legs throughout the crowded November, and while it won't completely bomb, it won't do great. - DirectorChris BuckFawn VeerasunthornStarsAriana DeBoseChris PineAlan TudykA young girl named Asha wishes on a star and gets a more direct answer than she bargained for when a trouble-making star comes down from the sky to join her.Opening Weekend: $45,000,000 ($70,000,000 5-Day)
Domestic: $200,000,000
Foreign: $320,000,000
Worldwide: $520,000,000
RT: 80%
Note: With recent Disney Thanksgiving releases significantly underperforming, "Wish" could follow in that pattern. However, it does have the people behind "Frozen" and other well-received Disney films making this film. So if it lives up the the quality of previous 2010's Disney Princess movies, it could easily out-gross recent films like 'Encanto' and 'Strange World', and has the potential to be a break-out hit. - DirectorRidley ScottStarsJoaquin PhoenixVanessa KirbyTahar RahimAn epic that details the chequered rise and fall of French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte and his relentless journey to power through the prism of his addictive, volatile relationship with his wife, Josephine.Opening Weekend: $17,500,000 ($25,000,000 5-Day)
Domestic: $65,000,000
Foreign: $90,000,000
Worldwide: $155,000,000
RT: 90%
Note: Throughout 2023, historical period pieces seems to be hot, with "Oppenheimer" and "Killers of the Flower Moon" releasing earlier this year. And with the star power of Joaquin Phoenix, and the initial buzz towards it, plus the new wave of Napoleon memes, it could be a decent enough success for Sony and Apple TV+ - DirectorPaul KingStarsTimothée ChalametGustave DieMurray McArthurWith dreams of opening a shop in a city renowned for its chocolate, a young and poor Willy Wonka discovers that the industry is run by a cartel of greedy chocolatiers.Opening Weekend: $30,000,000
Domestic: $200,000,000
Foreign: $300,000,000
Worldwide: $500,000,000
RT: 78%
Note: With "Willy Wonka" being a well-known brand, and with the Christmas around the corner, perfect for the theme of the film, I see it having great legs over December and January, and an overall success for Warner Bros.
Edit: This film could either release later in December, or be delayed to a later date. - DirectorJames WanStarsJason MomoaPatrick WilsonYahya Abdul-Mateen IIBlack Manta seeks revenge on Aquaman for his father's death. Wielding the Black Trident's power, he becomes a formidable foe. To defend Atlantis, Aquaman forges an alliance with his imprisoned brother. They must protect the kingdom.Opening Weekend: $30,000,000
Domestic: $100,000,000
Foreign: $220,000,000
Worldwide: $320,000,000
RT: 46%
Note: The first "Aquaman" film did great at the box office and had decent critical and audience reception. However, the DCEU has a lack of faith behind it amongst both Warner Bros. and general audiences, and with the 5-year break in between movies, I doubt there's a lot of audience interest, so it's likely to end the DCEU on a low note. - DirectorBenjamin RennerGuylo HomsyStarsKumail NanjianiTresi GazalElizabeth BanksA family of ducks try to convince their overprotective father to go on the vacation of a lifetime.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $120,000,000
Foreign: $180,000,000
Worldwide: $300,000,000
RT: 65%
Note: Universal animated films have done well over the holiday season, and it looks to be the same with "Migration". - DirectorBlitz BazawuleStarsFantasia BarrinoTaraji P. HensonDanielle BrooksA woman faces many hardships in her life, but ultimately finds extraordinary strength and hope in the unbreakable bonds of sisterhood.Opening Weekend: $15,000,000
Domestic: $95,000,000
Foreign: $45,000,000
Worldwide: $140,000,000
RT: 91%
Note: Even though musicals used to do pretty well over the Christmas season, with all the competition around the corner, plus the fact that many other musicals bombed recently bombed at the box office ('In The Heights', 'West Side Story'), I think this film will get lost with the crowd and fail at the box office. - DirectorAlejandro MonteverdeStarsJim CaviezelMira SorvinoBill CampThe incredible true story of a former government agent turned vigilante who embarks on a dangerous mission to rescue hundreds of children from traffickers.Actual Results:
Opening Weekend: $10,028,675
Domestic: $26,378,650
Foreign: $8,497,000
Worldwide: $34,875,650
RT: 30% - DirectorCeline SongStarsGreta LeeTeo YooJohn MagaroNora and Hae Sung, two deeply connected childhood friends, are wrested apart after Nora's family emigrates from South Korea. Twenty years later, they are reunited for one fateful week as they confront notions of love and destiny.
- DirectorDanny PhilippouMichael PhilippouStarsAri McCarthyHamish PhillipsKit Erhart-BruceWhen a group of friends discover how to conjure spirits using an embalmed hand, they become hooked on the new thrill, until one of them goes too far and unleashes terrifying supernatural forces.
- DirectorCraig GillespieStarsPaul DanoPete DavidsonVincent D'OnofrioDavid vs. Goliath tale about everyday people who flipped the script on Wall Street and got rich by turning GameStop (the video-game store) into the world's hottest company.
- DirectorBeyoncéMark RitchieEd BurkeStarsBeyoncéBlue Ivy CarterDiana RossBeyoncé in performance at her record-breaking RENAISSANCE World Tour and the creative mastermind behind it.